A new Israeli docu-series by Channel 14 is putting renewed focus on one of the most consequential debates in the country’s defense establishment: how far Israel can go in reducing its dependence on American weapons and military supplies.

The series, Embargo, argues that the war exposed severe shortages of shells, bombs, armored equipment and other critical systems, raising urgent questions about Israel’s ability to sustain prolonged fighting without relying heavily on foreign support.

War shortages forced a strategic reckoning

According to the report, the shortages uncovered after October 7 were not limited to advanced systems. They extended to core battlefield needs, including ammunition and heavy equipment, gaps that endangered troops and complicated military operations.

These shortages left Israel vulnerable not only on the battlefield, but also politically, by increasing its dependence on American arms deliveries during wartime.

That dependence, became especially acute when shipments were slowed or halted at critical moments, reinforcing the view among some Israeli officials that Jerusalem must preserve greater manufacturing independence in key areas.

The central dilemma: independence or excellence

The second episode, titled The Race to Independence, frames the issue as a strategic trade-off rather than a simple industrial challenge.

Former senior officials and defense industry officials say Israel has the technological ability to develop and produce a far wider range of weapons systems, including fighter aircraft, but question whether doing so would be economically viable or strategically wise.

Rafael chairman Yuval Steinitz says Israel must choose carefully between trying to produce everything on its own and concentrating resources on the areas where it can achieve world-leading superiority.

The argument is that total self-sufficiency may be possible in theory, but could come at the cost of excellence in the advanced weapons and precision systems where Israel already holds a decisive edge.

Could Israel build its own fighter jet again?

Boaz Levy, the CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries, said the real question is not whether Israel has the technological capability to develop a fighter aircraft, but whether such a project would make economic sense at scale.

According to Levy, if the State of Israel made the decision, it could direct Israel Aerospace Industries to develop a fighter jet, and the company would know how to build one of the best and most successful aircraft in the world, including both the platform itself and the supporting systems around it.

“When we’re talking about fighter jets, and you ask me whether the capability exists, I can tell you this is not a question of capability. The capability exists here.”

Levy said the bigger challenge is whether Israel could manufacture such aircraft in large numbers, sell them internationally, and sustain a major domestic production line over time. He said that economic reality is what ultimately drove Israel away from fighter jet production in the 1990s, when it stopped manufacturing the Kfir and later the Lavi. The country has the engineering talent and industrial base to build far more on its own, but not every capability is automatically viable as a long-term national production program..

Production lines and emergency solutions

The report says the series takes viewers inside production lines for shells and bombs while showing how Israeli planners searched for creative solutions during the fighting to ease immediate supply pressure.

Among the examples cited is the sourcing of explosive materials from India in an effort to create strategic breathing room and keep production moving.

The broader message is that Israel does not need complete autonomy in every field, but it must be able to guarantee production and stockpiles in critical wartime bottlenecks.

IDF use remains the industry’s strongest endorsement

Another central point in the episode is the close relationship between the IDF and the global success of Israel’s defense companies.

Retired Maj. Gen. Yiftach Ron-Tal says foreign militaries first want to know whether a given system is used by the IDF, arguing that Israeli operational use remains the strongest possible validation for export sales.

Elbit Systems executive Boaz Cohen makes a similar point, saying many of the products the company later sells abroad were first sold to the IDF, with combat use helping establish trust and credibility in foreign markets.

That creates a cycle in which the IDF serves not only as a military customer, but also as a proving ground that helps fuel future research, exports and development.

The warning from empty warehouses

The series also revisits the issue of American stockpiles held in Israel, presenting it as a major strategic failure.

According to the report, weapons reserves that were expected to be available in an emergency were instead redirected elsewhere, including to Ukraine, leaving Israel more exposed than many had assumed.

Former acting national security adviser Yaakov Nagel warns against shutting down production lines even when stockpiles appear large, arguing that once those lines disappear they cannot be quickly restored in a global emergency.

His warning reflects a broader lesson from the war in Ukraine and the war in Israel: when multiple conflicts erupt at once, global supply chains and production capacity can become overwhelmed with little warning.

Greater independence, not total separation

The conclusion drawn by the series is not that Israel can or should completely sever its defense reliance on the United States.

Rather, it argues that Israel must significantly deepen its domestic production base in the areas that matter most, especially ammunition, core battlefield supplies and other systems that can determine whether a campaign can be sustained over time.

The broader strategic aim is to ensure that in future wars, Israel’s most fateful military decisions are shaped in Jerusalem and not constrained by foreign political calculations or external supply bottlenecks.