Markets Rally as U.S.-Iran Deal Reports Send Oil Lower, But Major Questions Remain

Oil prices fell sharply while U.S. stocks rose as markets reacted to reports that Washington and Tehran may be close to a short-term agreement. The proposed deal could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Iran’s nuclear program, and begin 60 days of technical talks, but conflicting Iranian reports and President Trump’s own warning show the deal is not final.

Global markets moved higher Thursday as investors reacted to reports that the United States and Iran may be close to a short-term agreement aimed at ending the current war and opening formal negotiations.

Oil prices dropped sharply on hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen and that regional tensions may ease. WTI crude fell 3.23% to $84.88 a barrel, while Brent crude dropped 3.37% to $87.33.

According to reports, a senior U.S. official said the potential agreement would include reopening the Strait of Hormuz, ending the U.S. blockade, steps toward dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, removing enriched nuclear material from Iran, and creating an inspection system meant to make the deal enforceable over the long term.

The official said Iran would not receive upfront sanctions relief or financial benefits simply for signing. Instead, Tehran would be rewarded economically only if it meets its obligations under the agreement.

The deal reportedly includes a 60-day period for technical negotiations on unresolved details. The official said the chance of a near-term signing is around 80% to 85%, while also stressing that the agreement is not complete.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the memorandum is closer than ever, but Iranian state and semi-official media pushed back on some U.S. claims, including reports about nuclear commitments and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

President Donald Trump also warned Iran on Truth Social, saying Tehran had better “get its act together,” after conflicting reports emerged about what the draft agreement actually contains.

U.S. stocks still closed higher, with the Dow rising 0.70%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.50%, and the Nasdaq adding 0.31%. Treasury prices slipped as yields moved higher, partly reversing the previous day’s rally.

For Israel and its allies, the key question is enforcement. Any agreement with the Iranian regime must permanently block Tehran’s nuclear path, stop its terror funding network, and prevent Iran-backed forces from using Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, or Yemen as launchpads against Israel and the West.

The market is betting on calm. Israel cannot afford to bet on promises from Tehran.