Odds of Iran-Oman Hormuz Deal Drop Sharply on Polymarket

Prediction-market expectations for an Iran-Oman agreement involving the Strait of Hormuz have fallen sharply as uncertainty continues over the future of the strategically vital shipping route.

Polymarket placed the probability of an agreement before the end of August at 36% as of Thursday, representing a 21-percentage-point decline over 24 hours, according to prediction-market monitoring data.

The probability of an agreement before the end of September also dropped, falling 14 percentage points to 66%.

What the Market Is Measuring

The contracts are based on whether Iran and Oman formally announce a diplomatic agreement concerning passage through the Strait of Hormuz before their respective deadlines.

The agreement would need to involve an official arrangement covering measures, policies, obligations or commitments concerning passage through the waterway.

The declining probabilities do not mean negotiations have collapsed. Prediction-market prices reflect how traders are assessing the likelihood of an event occurring before a specific deadline.

Hormuz Remains Critical to Global Energy Supplies

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important energy corridors. Roughly 20% of global oil supplies normally pass through the waterway, making any prolonged disruption a major concern for international energy markets.

U.S. and Iranian officials have indicated that negotiations over reopening the strait have continued, but major disagreements remain over the conditions Tehran could impose and how much influence Iran would retain over maritime traffic.

Iran Links Reopening to Broader Demands

Iran’s Supreme National Security Council has indicated that any arrangement with Oman covering passage through Hormuz would be treated separately from the broader issue of ending restrictions on the strait.

Tehran has also tied a full reopening to a wider list of demands, including an end to the conflict, access to frozen Iranian funds and changes involving other regional conflicts.

The sharp move on Polymarket shows traders are becoming increasingly skeptical that negotiators can bridge those gaps before the end of August, even as the market continues to see a stronger possibility of an agreement by the end of September.