Prediction Markets Are Turning Reality Into a Casino

Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are being sold as tools for truth, forecasting, and the so-called wisdom of the crowd. In reality, they are rapidly turning politics, war, entertainment, religion, public safety, and even death rumors into a global betting floor.

Supporters argue that these markets can cut through propaganda. During rumors about Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Polymarket contracts reportedly showed only a low chance that he would leave office, even as the opposite stories spread online. In another case involving Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, prediction market pricing reportedly moved sharply after reports of his death were confirmed.

But that does not erase the deeper problem. A market that sometimes reflects reality can still create a dangerous incentive structure. When people can bet on wars, assassinations, political collapse, military action, weather events, reality show results, and even bizarre religious questions, the line between forecasting and exploitation starts to disappear.

A World Where Everything Becomes a Bet

The explosive growth of prediction markets shows how quickly this industry is moving. Reports cited in the provided material say Kalshi and Polymarket have seen billions in monthly trading volume, with forecasts suggesting the sector could eventually reach massive annual volumes. Investors are pouring money in, and major financial and political figures are now tied to the space.

That should worry the public. These platforms are no longer small internet experiments. They are becoming financial infrastructure for gambling on real-world outcomes. The more money involved, the stronger the temptation for insiders, political operatives, corporate employees, military personnel, media workers, and foreign actors to exploit privileged information.

Insider Trading Is Not a Side Issue

The strongest criticism of prediction markets is simple: many real-world events are not equally knowable. Some people have advance access to military plans, company data, television outcomes, government decisions, or political information. Ordinary users do not.

The provided reports cite allegations involving a U.S. Army Special Forces soldier accused of using classified knowledge for Polymarket trades, a Google employee accused of betting based on internal company data, and entertainment insiders allegedly gaining an unfair edge on reality TV outcomes. There are also concerns about well-timed war-related bets from newly created accounts.

That is not the wisdom of the crowd. That is the monetization of secrets.

AI Could Make the Problem Worse

Some technologists believe AI will soon outperform human forecasters and replace crowd predictions with machine-generated probabilities. That may bring benefits in medicine, science, logistics, and national defense. But applying that same logic to public betting markets could create a darker future.

If AI systems can predict political shocks, military moves, market shifts, or social unrest better than humans, the people who control those systems may gain enormous power. Instead of democratizing knowledge, prediction markets could concentrate profits among elite traders, insiders, and institutions with superior tools.

The Public Pays, the Few Win

The provided material cites analysis showing that a tiny share of Polymarket accounts capture a large share of profits, while many ordinary users lose money. That is a familiar pattern in gambling. The platform markets participation as intelligence, but the average user may simply be liquidity for sharper players.

This is the core danger: prediction markets dress gambling in the language of data, probability, and truth. But for many users, the outcome is still loss, addiction, and manipulation.

Regulators Are Behind the Curve

Lawmakers and regulators are now struggling to catch up. Some have pushed to restrict death-related contracts, sports-style markets, and trading by government officials or their families. State regulators are also challenging whether these platforms are effectively unlicensed gambling operations.

The industry says it can police insider trading and operate responsibly. But the incentives point the other way. Once every crisis becomes a market, every insider becomes a potential trader, and every rumor becomes a possible profit opportunity.

Bottom Line

Prediction markets may sometimes expose false rumors, but that does not make them safe. A society should not normalize betting on war, death, terrorism, political chaos, or private information. Polymarket and similar platforms are building a world where everything is tradable, everything is gamified, and every tragedy can become someone’s payday.

That is not wisdom. That is a casino wearing a data-science mask.