Reports: U.S. Intelligence Doubts Current Airstrikes Alone Will Force Iran to Negotiate

U.S. Agencies Reportedly Question Iran’s Willingness to Bend

U.S. intelligence agencies reportedly assess that the current level of American airstrikes is unlikely, by itself, to force Iran to change its negotiating position.

CNN cited two U.S. officials familiar with internal government assessments who said both the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency reached that conclusion.

Alex Vatanka, an Iran analyst at the Middle East Institute, told CNN that Tehran appears willing to absorb economic and military pain because its leaders believe they can outlast President Donald Trump’s pressure campaign.

Iran has suffered major damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes, but the regime has also demonstrated its ability to threaten global energy routes and Gulf infrastructure through asymmetric attacks.

Iran Uses Regional Terror Proxies to Expand Pressure

Iran’s threat to the Strait of Hormuz has already raised fears of serious damage to the global economy. Tehran has also shown that attacks against energy infrastructure in Gulf states can create broad regional disruption.

Meanwhile, the Iran-backed Houthi terror group in Yemen has declared its intention to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea, widening the pressure campaign against the United States, Israel, and international shipping.

CNN warned that an open-ended exchange of strikes could lead to additional American casualties and turn the Strait of Hormuz into a prolonged crisis resembling the kind of “forever war” President Trump has repeatedly opposed.

Vatanka said hardliners in Iran remain deeply suspicious of American promises. However, he also argued that Iran’s current leadership may still see negotiations as preferable to an indefinite war.

Report Says Iran Is Rebuilding Faster Than Expected

The Wall Street Journal separately reported that Iran is rapidly repairing infrastructure damaged by U.S. and Israeli strikes.

Citing satellite imagery reviewed by Israeli and Western officials, the report said Tehran has restored access to missile facilities, bridges, ports, and production sites across the country.

At a missile base near Kangavar in western Iran, two tunnel entrances and an access road were reportedly destroyed in a March airstrike. According to the report, the site was cleared and reopened within weeks. A damaged bridge was repaired within days.

“Iran has replenished its missile stockpiles,” former Israeli Air Force and missile defense commander Ran Kochav said, describing Iran’s industrial and rebuilding capacity as highly developed.

The report said many strikes focused on collapsing tunnel entrances rather than destroying entire underground missile facilities. That left weapons stored inside largely intact, allowing Iranian crews to regain access through excavation.

U.S. and Israeli forces also targeted facilities used to produce components for missiles and drones. However, analysts cited in the report said Iran may already have stored large quantities of those components underground.

Pressure Must Target Iran’s Ability to Rebuild

The reports suggest that damaging Iran’s infrastructure is not enough when the regime can rapidly restore access, draw on underground stockpiles, and use terror proxies to threaten global trade routes.

Israel and the United States face a clear strategic challenge: military pressure must be strong enough not only to strike Iran’s capabilities, but also to prevent the regime from quickly rebuilding them.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for de-escalation, warning that the Middle East was moving toward a situation that could spiral out of control.

Diplomacy may still remain possible, but Iran’s leaders must understand that regional terrorism, missile production, attacks on shipping, and threats against Israel will carry lasting consequences.